桑之未:数据解读豪华车市 揭秘H1最赚钱经销商

  
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  (This article is attached with English translation)上半年豪华品牌经销商单车利润(不含衍生利润)排行榜出炉,奔驰以单车利润4.44%排名第一,雷克萨斯以3.09%排名第二,英菲尼迪以0.68%排名第三。保时捷品牌也是今年经销商利润最好的品牌之一,笔者没有作过多调研,不在文中涉及。本篇文章笔者着重介绍了部分品牌经销商单车利润、库存系数、客流环比数据等,透过这些数据可以看到上半年奔驰、雷克萨斯经销商是盈利最为稳定的经销商,再加上衍生精品等,单车利润可以达到5-6个点,如果加上售后的利润将是十分可观。另外这些数据有助于厂家、经销商对目前市场竞争格局有所了解,及时调整经营策略。

桑之未:数据解读豪华车市 揭秘H1最赚钱经销商

  单车利润计算比较复杂,涉及到的数据众多,笔者每月对部分国内豪华车经销商进行调研,每个月20日之后可以看到上月数据,覆盖东北、华北、华东、华南、华中、西南、西北等经销商集团,所调查的结果仅反应部分经销商状态,不代表厂家;数据结果仅供参考,由于促销补贴考核内容较多,很多经销商不一定都会拿到满分,各地经销商经营状态也不一致,理论上的利润与经销商实际利润还是有出入的,如果经销商把衍生利润计入,其单车利润还会得到提升。

  奔驰  

  奔驰经销商上半年单车利润为4.44%,其中单车利润6月份为3.7%,环比微升,经销商库存深度为0.96,环比微升,库存较低;主要是受益于走量车型C级车利润提升所致,6月C级返利支持力度微增;6月GLA新车上市返利支持力度减少,6月份宝马5系新车上市,奔驰E竞争对手减少,返利支持力度也有所减少;6月GLC支持力度有所增加,部分经销商单车利润可达7%以上。奔驰6月客流环比为-2.26%,但对奔驰的整体销量影响不大,单月含(smart)销量在豪华车中排名第一。

  雷克萨斯   

  雷克萨斯经销商上半年单车利润为3.25%,其中单车利润6月份为3.09%,利润环比微升,经销商库存深度为0.76,库存较低;赚钱车型RX利润提升所致,走量车型ES微亏;6月客流环比增长-7.5%。雷克萨斯今年的新车利润一直比较稳定,这与雷克萨斯策略有很大关系,丰田对雷克萨斯在中国的战略目标更看重利润,而不是销量;雷克萨斯中国可以根据市场需求不断调整销售节奏,让经销商保持比较理想的单车利润。

  英菲尼迪   

  英菲尼迪经销商上半年单车利润为0.68%,其中单车利润6月份为-1.03%,环比微降,6月客流环比-5.48%;经销商存深度为2.6。6月利润下滑受主要受QX30、Q50L、Q70L利润下滑影响,6月这几款所在车型的细分市场折扣增加,价格下滑较多。英菲尼迪一直缺少中型SUV,明年1季度QX50L在大连国产,估计利润情况会有所改观。

  沃尔沃  

  沃尔沃经销商上半年单车利润为-0.77%,其中单车利润6月份为-0.8%,单车利润环比增幅较快;经销商库存深度为1.95,环比增幅77%,库存增幅快,比较危险。5月份沃尔沃单车利润为-3.02%,6月份单车亏损收窄与返利支持增加有关,6月份返利支持力度环比增长13.9%,提升2.46%达到20.16%。6月沃尔沃客流环比-1.83%。沃尔沃主力销售车型S60L、XC60、S90、XC90的单车利润均得以提升,XC90提升最多,达6个点。沃尔沃的返利支持力度是除凯迪拉克之外最多的,厂家需要考虑进一步提升品牌力以及产品市场定位;20%多的返利政策对于汽车企业来说不能持续,这将会导致企业利润不高,徘徊在亏损边缘。

  路虎  

  路虎经销商上半年单车利润为-0.85%,其中单车利润6月份为-1.24%,利润环比微升,比上个月有所改观,经销商库存深度为1.65;6月客流下滑-3.48%。6月利润回升主要是国产发现神行、极光的单车利润有所改观,其中国产发现神行返利支持力度有所增加,比上个月增加2.85%。路虎品牌国产化后,品牌力持续下降,几款国产车型定价高于市场预期,导致经销商库存高企,普遍亏损;厂家需要采取措施,加大品牌、公关投入,提升品牌声量;调整过高的产品定价,使经销商运营步入盈利正轨。

  捷豹  

  捷豹经销商上半年单车利润为-2.41%,其中单车利润6月份为-3.09%,利润环比微升。6月捷豹品牌XE单车利润-4.79%,下滑近5个点,国产捷豹XFL六月对经销商没有新增支持,经销商单车利润下滑2.57%至-5.05%,这个级别市场竞争太为激烈;新款F-pace上市后利润不错,在厂家减少返利支持下,单车利润还能止跌回升。

  宝马  

  宝马经销商上半年单车利润为-0.89%,其中单车利润6月份为-2.09%,环比下降,经销商库存深度为1.7,环比微增,客流微降。6月经销商单车利润下滑主要受宝马1系三厢、X1、5系影响较多;3系、7系利润环比微降,X3、X5、X6利润回升。宝马各个区域经销商单车利润也不同,北区、西区差一些大约-2.5--3%,东区相对好一些;6月份利润下降主要受到宝马5系的影响比较大,6月份宝马5系经销商开票数据为8500辆,从乘联会数据来看宝马新款5系批发5000台左右,6月份有可能新旧两款宝马5系开票数量各占一半,宝马在6月份对5系的补贴减少5%,老款车型延续之前的补贴,由于无法分辨新旧5销量占比,我们在计算宝马5系的利润时候会出现一些偏差,从而对数据结果有些影响,宝马5系是宝马的核心产品,也是经销商是否赚钱、提升品牌地位的产品,新产品爬坡期间如何处理增加销量与平衡经销商利润是宝马最为迫切需要解决的问题。

  林肯  

  林肯经销商上半年单车利润为-0.97%,其中单车利润6月份为2.22%,单车利润由上个月的-0.74%升至2.22%,经销商库存深度为2.15环比增幅超10%,库存处在高位,比较危险;6月林肯客流环比-9.83%。6月单车利润提升与林肯及时调整返利支持力度有关,6月林肯MKX、领航员单车利润跳升,返利支持力度提升8个多点。笔者曾在上个月的销量点评文章中提到,林肯的返利支持力度在豪华车中算是比较低的,调整空间比较大。林肯主力销售车型是SUV,涵盖紧凑级、中型、大型等,基本是今年豪华车细分市场中增速比较快、利润比较高的,加之合理的销售策略,经销商配合,所以林肯在华前5个月销量实现翻倍,并且利润也得到保证。

  凯迪拉克  

  凯迪拉克经销商上半年单车利润为-0.97%,其中单车利润6月份为-1.38%,经销商库存深度为0.78,库存相对安全,客流环比-8%,连续两个月客流下滑。凯迪拉克采用高补贴方式,来维持经销商盈利,ATS-L单车补贴高达28.1%、SUV车型XT5为15.75%,XTS为26.53%,但高额补贴下,这几款车的经销商单车利润还是负数。厂家能够维持高额补贴,说明车企成产成本控制的好。

  奥迪  

  奥迪经销商上半年单车利润为-3.91%,其中单车利润6月份为-4.32%,经销商库存深度为1.5,环比微增,库存比较安全。6月经销商单车利润下滑主要受奥迪A3、A6L利润下滑环比影响比较大,其中A3下滑1.01%,A6L下滑0.64%,Q3、Q5单车利润环比也出现微降;这与奥迪在6月份开始追赶损失的市场份额有关;奥迪在北方、西部地区单车利润下滑较多;目前奥迪需要恢复品牌信心,加强营销举措和加强区域管理,在增量的时候如何控制住价格快速下滑是奥迪首要解决的问题。奥迪6月按照单一品牌计算,已经回到豪华车销量第一个的位置,下半年奥迪要追赶全年销量目标,估计将会挤压二线豪华品牌的生存空间。

  6月为车企半年考核期,一般会通过批发与商务政策捆绑方式来进行推进销售,部分车企这个时期的返利支持力度都比较大,经销商也会配合完成批发目标,6月份单车利润波动也比较大,过后的7、8月份将迎来一年的价格低点,豪华品牌单车利润也会进入一年中的低点。换句话说,消费者在7、8月份买豪华车作为划算。

  文中涉及的数据,多是从国内经销商集团调研而来的数据,其中文中提及的“单车利润”是指经销商销售新车时赚取的利润,数据涉及单车加权平均销售价格、厂家返利(包含固定返利、考核奖励、促销补贴、人员奖励等),销售折扣等;这里不包含衍生精品的销售利润。“库存系数”是指当月销量除以过去三个月销量均值。“客流环比”是指当月客流与上月客流的比率,可以看到市场客流趋势。

  版权声明:本文系@桑之未 #原创首发# 转载或改编请与本人沟通,如有任何侵权行为,侵权者将承担相应的法律责任。汽车行业人士留言可以索取本人微信号码,更多行业信息查阅朋友圈分享内容。2017-07-25 北京 

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  ————— 中英文分割线 —————

  Sang Zhiwei: Data Analyses Luxury Brands Market -------Which dealer made the most profit in 1H,2017?

  Written by Sang Zhiwei, Analyzer of the automobile dealers industry and Member of Committee of Experts of China Automobile Dealers Association。

  The ranking of unit profit margin of luxury brands in the 1H,2017 was released (excluding after-sales profit)。  Mercedes-Benz ranked No.1 with 4.44%。 Lexus ranked No.2 with 3.09%。 Infiniti ranked No.3 with the unit profit margin of 0.68%。 Porsche Brand was one of the brands whose dealers had the highest profit this year。 The author did not do much research, so it will not be involved in this article。 The author of this article focuses on some brands’ dealers’ the unit profit margin, inventory coefficient, the chain relative ratio of customer flow etc。 Through these data, we can see that in 1H 2017, Mercedes-Benz and Lexus dealers had the most stable profit。 Together with derivative products, the unit profit margin could reach 5%-6%。 With after-sales profit, the profit was considerable。 In addition, these data can help manufacturers and dealers to understand the current market competition pattern and adjust business strategies。

桑之未:数据解读豪华车市 揭秘H1最赚钱经销商

  The calculation of unit profit margin is relatively complex, and involves many data。 The author surveys several domestic luxury brand dealers every month。 After the 20th day of each month, the data of last month is released, covering dealer groups from Northeast, North China, East China, South China, Central China, Southwest, Northwest。 The results of the survey only show the conditions of several dealers, but do not represent the manufacturers。 Data results are for reference only。 Due to many promotion subsidy examination contents, many dealers cannot necessarily get full score。 Dealers in different places have different business situation。 The theoretical profit is different from dealer’s actual profit。 If includes the derivative profit, the unit profit will increase。

  Mercedes-Benz 

  The unit profit margin of Mercedes-Benz dealers in 1H,2017 is 4.44%。  In June, the unit profit margin is 3.7%,slightly increased month over month。 The inventory coefficient was 0.96, slightly up month over month。 The inventory was relatively low。 It was mainly due to the increase of profit of C-class model, a model with fast turnovers。 In June the rebate support of C-class model slightly increased。 The rebate support of GLA SUV decreased due to new model launching。 In June BMW launched new 5-series。 The competitors of Mercedes-Benz E-Class reduced, and rebate support also decreased。 In June GLC SUV rebate support increased, and the unit profit margin of some dealers could reach up to 7%。 In June, customer flow of Mercedes-Benz was -2.26% month over month, but the influence on overall sales of Mercedes-Benz was not significant, and sales volume (including Smart) ranked No.1 among luxury brands。

  Lexus  

  The unit profit margin of Lexus dealers in 1H,2017 is 3.25%。  In June, the unit profit margin is 3.09%, slightly up month over month。 The inventory coefficient was 0.76, and the inventory was low。 It was due to the increase of profit of RX, a profitable model, and slight loss of ES, a model with small profits but fast turnovers。 In June, customer flow increased by -7.5% month over month。 The profit of new car of Lexus was relatively stable this year, which was related to Lexus’ strategies。 Toyota focuses on profit in Lexus’ strategic in China, rather than sales volume。 Lexus China can constantly adjust the pace of sales according to market demand, so that dealers can keep ideal unit profit。

  Infiniti 

  The unit profit margin of Infiniti dealers in 1H,2017 is 0.68%。  In June, the unit profit margin is -1.03%, slightly decrease month over month。 In June, customer flow was -5.48% month over month, and the inventory coefficient of dealers was 2.6。 In June, the profit decrease was mainly affected by the profit decrease of QX30, Q50L and Q70L。 In June, in the market segment of these models the discount increased, and price decreased。 Infiniti has been lacking middle-sized SUV。 In Q1 of next year, QX50L will be produced in Dalian。 It is likely to be seen that the profit will increase。

  Volvo 

  The unit profit margin of Volvo dealers in 1H,2017 is -0.77%。  In June, the unit profit margin is -0.8%, quickly increased month over month。 The inventory coefficient of dealers was 1.95, increased 77% month over month。 The increase of inventories was fast, which was relatively dangerous。 In May, the unit profit margin of Volvo was -3.02%。 In June the loss of unit profit shrinked was associated with the increased rebate support。 In June the rebate support increased by 13.9% month over month and reached 20.16%, up 2.46%。 In June, customer flow of Volvo was - 1.83% month over month。 The unit profit of S60L, XC60, S90 and XC90, main sales models of Volvo, all increased。 The unit profit of XC90 increased fastest by 6%。 In June, Volvo‘s new wholesale was 5,000 vehicles, and inventory coefficient increased 1.93% month over month。 Besides Cadillac, Volvo’s gave the biggest rebate support。 On one hand, it shows that the product market positioning has problems。 On the other hand, it shows that the power of product is not strong, and the market popularity is not high。 The policy of more than 20% of rebate cannot be sustained for manufactures。 As a result, the corporate profit was not high, and the dealers wandered on the edge of loss。

  Land Rover 

  The unit profit margin of Land Rover dealers in 1H,2017 is -0.85%。  In June, the unit profit margin is -1.24%, slightly up month over month。 The inventory coefficient of dealers was 1.65。 In June, customer flow decreased by -3.48% month over month。 In June, the profit rebound was mainly because the unit profit of domestic Discovery Sport and Evoque increased。 Among them, the rebate support of Discovery Sport produced in China increased by 2.85% compared to that of the last month。

  Jaguar 

  The unit profit margin of Jaguar dealers in 1H,2017 is -2.41%。  In June, the unit profit margin is –3.09%, slightly up month over month。 In June, the unit profit of XE of Jaguar Brand was - 4.79% month over month, down by nearly 5%。 In June for domestic Jaguar XFL no additional support was provided to dealers。 Unit profit margin of dealers decreased by 2.57% to -5.05%。 The competition of market of this class was too fierce。 After new F-pace was launched, the profit was good。 The manufacturer decreased rebate support, but the unit profit stopped decreasing and increased。

  BMW 

  The unit profit margin of BMW dealers in 1H,2017 is -0.89%。  In June, the unit profit margin is –2.09%, down month over month。 The inventory coefficient of dealers was 1.7, slightly up month over month。 The inventory was relatively safe, and the customer flow slightly decreased。 In June the decrease of unit profit was mainly affected by BMW 1-series sedan, X1 and 5-series。 The profit of 3-series and 7-series slightly decreased month over month。 The profit of X3, X5 and X6 rebounded。 In June profit decrease was mainly affected by BMW 5-series。 In June the billing data of BMW 5-series dealers was 8,500 cars。 Seen from the data of CPCA, the wholesale quantity of new BMW 5-series was about 5,000 vehicles。 In June, probably the billing quantity of old and new BMW 5-series accounted for 50%, respectively。 BMW 5-series’ subsidies decreased by 5% in June。 The old model will continue the previous subsidies。 Because we cannot distinguish between the proportion of sales of old and new 5-series, when we calculate the profit of BMW 5-series, there will be some deviation, thus affecting the result of data。 Later, the author will continue to observe the profit of a single vehicle of BMW dealers。

  Lincoln 

  The unit profit margin of Lincoln dealers in 1H,2017 is -0.97%。  In June, the unit profit margin is –2.22%。 The unit profit margin increased from -0.74% of last month to 2.22%。 The inventory coefficient of dealers was 2.15, and dealers’ inventory coefficient increased more than 10% month over month。 The inventory was high, which was relatively dangerous。 In June, customer flow of Lincoln was -9.83% month over month。 The increase of unit profit in June was related to Lincoln’s quick adjustment of the rebate support。 In June, the unit profit of Lincoln MKX and Navigator jumped。 The rebate support increased by more than 8%。 In an article about sales comments in the last month, the author said that Lincoln‘s rebate support was relatively low in luxury brands, and the adjustment space was relatively big。 Lincoln’s main sales model was SUV, including compact, middle-sized and large SUV。 This year, in the luxury brand market segment, it had a relatively fast growth and high profit。 With reasonable sales strategies and dealers’ cooperation, Lincoln’s sales in China doubled in the first five months, and dealers’ profit were guaranteed。

  Cadillac 

  The unit profit margin of Cadillac dealers in 1H,2017 is -0.97%。  In June, the unit profit margin is –1.38%。 The inventory coefficient of dealers was 0.78。 The inventory was relatively safe。 Customer flow was -8% month over month。 The customer flow decreased for two consecutive months。 Cadillac used the method of high subsidy to maintain dealers’ profit。 The subsidy of a single vehicle of ATS-L was as high as 28.1%, that of XT5, an SUV, was 15.75%, and that of XTS was 26.53%。 However, with high subsidies, the unit profit margin of dealers of these models was still negative。 The manufacturer could maintain high subsidies。 It showed that the manufacturer controlled the production cost well。

  Audi 

  The unit profit margin of Audi dealers in 1H,2017 is -3.91%。  In June, the unit profit margin of Audi dealers is -4.32%。 The inventory coefficient of dealers was 1.5, slightly up month over month。 The inventory was relatively safe。 In June dealers’ unit profit decreased, mainly because it was affected by profit decrease of Audi A3 and A6L。 Among them, the profit of A3 decreased by 1.01%, and that of A6L decreased by 0.64%。 The unit profit of Q3 and Q5 also slightly decreased month over month, because in June Audi began to make up the lost market share。 In June, calculated with a single brand, Audi had the top sale in luxury cars。 This month, Audi kept its moderate inventory and realized growth。 In the second half of the year, Audi will pursue the annual sales target。 It is likely to be seen that the living space of second-tier luxury brands will reduce。

  June is the due month of half-year assessment period of automobile enterprises。 Usually they promote sales through wholesale and business policy。 Some automobile enterprises have high rebate support in this period。 Dealers also cooperate to achieve the wholesale goal。 In June the fluctuation of unit profit margin was relatively big。 In July and August, the price will be lowest in the year, and the unit profit margin of luxury brands will be low in year。 In other words, it is the most cost-effective for consumers to buy luxury cars in July and August。

  Most data involved in the article comes from domestic dealers’ group surveys。 The unit profit margin mentioned in the article refers to profit margin earned when a dealer sells a new car。 The data involves the weighted average selling price of a single vehicle, manufacturer’s rebate data (including fixed rebate, assessment rewards, promotion subsidies, personnel incentives, etc。), sales discount, etc。 It does not include the sales profit of derivative products。 Inventory coefficient refers to the sales of the current month divided by the average sales for the past three months。 “ customer flow month over month ” refers to the ratio of customer flow of the current month and that of last month。 It indicates the market trend of customer flow。

  Copyright statement: This article is anoriginal article published by Sang Zhiwei for the first time。 For reproduction or adapting, please communicate with the author。 In case of any infringement, the infringer will bear the corresponding legal responsibilities。 Readers in the auto industry can leave a message and ask for the author‘s personal WeChat number。 For more information of the industry, refer to the content shared in Circle of Friends。

  July 25th, 2017, Beijing

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桑之未:数据解读豪华车市 揭秘H1最赚钱经销商

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